Top Brentford picks for 23/24 FPL

Now that their fixtures and FPL player prices have been confirmed, here are the top Brentford picks for 2023/24.

A ninth-placed finish ensured that Brentford improved on their first-ever Premier League campaign, headlined by a 12-match unbeaten run and beating treble winners Man City on both occasions.

Early transfers have been made, as they try to replace goalkeeper David Raya (£5.0m) and cover the long ban of star forward Ivan Toney (£8.0m).

Fixture Ticker

Thanks to Fantasy Football Scout, we can see that Brentford’s fixtures are rated fifth-best until Gameweek 7.

Their opener at home to Spurs comes soon after winning 3-1 in May’s North London meeting, so there’s no reason to be nervous about Ange Postecoglou’s side. After travelling a short distance to Fulham, it’s then home games versus Crystal Palace, Bournemouth and Everton in their following four.

Brentford’s defence

A dozen clean sheets arrived last season, including at home to Man United, Man City and twice against Chelsea.

• Brentford conceded the second-most shots on target (197) and fourth-most goal attempts (559)
• Yet they also allowed the fourth-fewest big chances (67) and ranked fifth-best for goals conceded (46)

It was a strange combination, allowing goalkeeper Raya to have a mix of regular clean sheets and lots of saves from poorer, non-threatening shots.

Top Brentford picks in defence

The £4.5m-starter ended as top-scoring stopper, being first for saves (154), save points (39) and bonuses (20). Interestingly, new name Mark Flekken also saves well and kept a Bundesliga-high 13 clean sheets in 2022/23.

With Raya entering the final year of his contract and hoping to leave, seeing Flekken only be £4.5m is a nice surprise to the FPL community.

It’d just require managers to decide whether they’d prefer to cover the Bees’ fixture run in goal or via a same-priced defender like Rico Henry (£4.5m) or Ethan Pinnock (£4.5m).

Without a goal last time, Henry’s underlying numbers weren’t bad. The joint-10th best defender for big chances created (5) and joint-ninth for his own big chances (3).

As for Pinnock, nobody at the back scored more than his three goals. Joining him on this number are Gabriel, Pedro Porro, Virgil van Dijk and his own team-mate Ben Mee (£5.0m).

After joining on a free transfer from Burnley, the latter was only bettered by two defenders for expected goals (xG). Close by was Pinnock.

Brentford’s attack

Similarly to earlier, there was a contrast between total shots (ranked 18th) and the number of goals, xG and big chances (all 7th). It suggests a quality-not-quantity ideology where Thomas Frank asks his side not to take speculative shots but to instead formulate good ones.

• In six of their eight matches versus the top four, Brentford recorded an xG of over 1.0.
• Additionally, their 25 goals from penalties and set-pieces was the most.

Top Brentford picks in attack

Their undoubted star in attack was Toney, whose 20 goals improved upon the 12 of before. Highlights included a Gameweek 6 hat-trick versus Leeds and scoring a brace in a 2-1 win at Man City.

Erling Haaland and Harry Kane were the only forwards with more big chances (33) and it was just those and fellow premium Mohamed Salah with a higher expected goal involvement (xGI, 22.28).

However, he’s suspended until January 16th 2024 because of betting rules being breached. This moves FPL attention to Bryan Mbeumo (£6.5m) and Yoane Wissa (£6.0m), who have swapped positions. Together, 48.3% of their 29 returns came in the five Toney-less matches.

Now classified as a midfielder, Mbeumo failed to exceed 570k owners last season despite ending on nine goals and nine assists. Some of these only arrived in the final three, with Toney absent, but it was enough to finish as the sixth-best forward.

Above: 2022/23 FPL midfielders sorted by big chances per 90 (minimum 500 mins played)

His 0.56 big chances per 90 (at least 500 minutes) would’ve ranked joint-eighth amongst midfielders last time. Furthermore, he’s now on penalty duty.

Meanwhile, Wissa sits in the £6.0m forward bracket alongside Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Evan Ferguson and West Ham’s trio.

Conclusion

To summarise, Mbeumo is one of the strongest options throughout the game, reflected by a 26.8% ownership at the time of writing. A strong end to the season, plus better numbers when Toney’s not around. He could be a leading midfielder.

If competition in that area of your squad is too fierce, maybe Wissa is a good differential alternative. 14 goals over two seasons from 2,855 minutes – almost 32 full matches.

Defensively, both Mee and Pinnock carry a goal threat during Brentford’s superb set-pieces but some FPL managers will prefer taking the £4.5m goalkeeper route via Flekken.