How will the five sub rule impact FPL?

From the start of the 2022/23 season Premier League managers will be able to make five substitutes in a match. Previously they had only been able to make three. We assess what impact five sub rule might have on FPL with thanks to Neale from Fantasy Football Scout.

When the Premium League 2019/20 season restarted after the Covid lockdown the five sub rule was temporarily brought in. This allowed Premier League managers to manage the impact of Covid. However this change is now a permanent feature.

Official rule

Clubs will be permitted to use five substitutions, to be made on three occasions during a match, with an additional opportunity at half-time. A total of nine substitutes can be named on the teamsheet.

The Premier League

This means that Premier League managers can’t make substitutions in order to waste time. They will have to make their five substitutions during specific windows. Substitutions can be made on a maximum of six occasions during the match, three occasions per side. This is the same as it was last season. Managers can also make substitutions half-time in addition to theit three windows during the game. This five sub rule has the potential to see less minutes for our FPL assets. But will it?

2019/20 Project Restart

Over on Fantasy Football Scout Neale has looked at the five sub rule. He assessed how each of the managers used the additional substitutions when they were available previously.

Neale found that:

A total of nine Premier League managers from 2019/20 will still be in charge come Gameweek 1 of the upcoming season, with seven of them at the same clubs.

Four of the six most active head coaches are still in the managerial hotseat, with Graham Potter the most prolific tinkerer: the Brighton and Hove Albion boss averaged 4.8 changes per match from Gameweeks 30+ to 38+ of 2019/20.

Jurgen Klopp wasn’t far behind the Albion manager (4.7), with David Moyes relatively hands-off with an average of three alterations per game.

Neale – Fantasy Football Scout

As part of the article that can be read here, Neale concluded that

• 15.9% of the starts that defenders made in the final nine Gameweeks of 2019/20 ended in a substitution, compared to 12.1% in the whole of 2021/22.
• 50.7% of the starts that midfielders made in the final nine Gameweeks of 2019/20 ended in a substitution, compared to 38.8% in the whole of 2021/22.
• 60.5% of the starts that forwards made in the final nine Gameweeks of 2019/20 ended in a substitution, compared to 41.2% in the whole of 2021/22.