Early plans for Gameweek 38

Gameweek 38 is the final opportunity for managers to secure their overall rank and mini league positions. Sam from FPLFamily shares her early plans for Gameweek 38 here.

Gameweek 37 is far from over with the midweek games still to be played out. However, Gameweek 38 has already torn my attention firmly away. Gameweek 38 is the one that seems to panic FPL managers the most. Which teams are going to rotate? Who are the key players that are going to be on the bench? How do I ensure that my team is fully covered and brings me the most points possible?

Knowing that Gameweek 38 is the last opportunity to score points adds to the pressure. When teams are hit by mass rotation mini leagues can be won or lost, and overall ranks can still change dramatically.

In previous seasons Gameweek 38 has brought a mixed bag of luck. In the 2019/20 season I used my Free Hit chip in Gameweek 38 and it was the best use of the chip I have had. However, last year Gameweek 38 seemed to petter out. This year I am heading into the final gameweek of the season heavily invested in some teams based on the recent double gameweeks. Looking at the fixtures for the final day as well as who has something to play for, I am not sure I am invested in the right teams.

Current Squad

I currently have three Brighton, three Man City, two Man United and two Liverpool. Alongside these I have one player each from Spurs, Aston Villa, Leicester, Arsenal and Newcastle.

With Man City having already secured the Premier League title I am slightly concerned about my Man City assets. Especially with the FA Cup and Champions League finals still to come. Likewise if Man United secure their Champions League position for 23/24 ahead of Gameweek 38 then they could also rotate heavily for Gameweek 38 ahead of the FA Cup final.

Teams to target

Relegation battle

Everton, Leicester and Leeds are still in the battle to stay in the Premier League for the new season. Two of these three sides will be relegated alongside Southampton. As a result these three teams could have good potential punts for the final matches. They will need to secure their Premier League lives in Gameweek 38.

At Everton James Tarkowski (£4.1m), Yerry Mina (£4.3m) and Michael Keane (££4.2m) are all great from set pieces. Their opponents Bournemouth have conceded more attempts from set pieces than any other club so far this season with 181. Players like Dwight McNeil (£5.1m) who is only owned by 0.7% of managers could also be an interesting differential. The midfielder has returned 25 points in his last three matches.

Leicester will need the likes of Harvey Barnes (£6.6m) and James Maddison (£7.8m) to be at their best in their final match against West Ham if they are going to maintain their Premier League status. Both of these players are owned by under 5% of the game and if Leicester score they are likely to be involved.

Meanwhile Leeds face a struggling Spurs defence on the final day. The Lily Whites have now conceded 62 goals this season. Only five teams have conceded more.

Leeds though have some headaches in attack. Both Patrick Bamford (£7.1m) and Rodrigo (£6.3m) picked up injuries in Gameweek 37. These injuries could keep them out of Gameweek 38. Jack Harrison (£5.7m) or Wilfred Gnoto (£4.7m) could be the best Leeds punts if Bamford and Rodrigo don’t make it.

European ambitions

Europa Conference

Spurs, Aston Villa and Brentford are all in the hunt for the Europa Conference place for next season. The three teams could therefore all provide good punts for FPL managers. Spurs’ face a Leeds side who have deployed a high press in recent gameweeks. This is the style of play that suits Spurs’ counter attack well. Son Heung-Min (£11.5m) is guaranteed the start and he is currently owned by just 6.1% of managers.

Aston Villa face Brighton in Gameweek 38 with both sides trying to secure their European spots. Across the Aston Villa team only Ollie Watkins (£7.3m) is owned by more than 10% of FPL managers. Investing in differentials such as Jacob Ramsey (£5.1m) or Douglas Luis (£4.8m) who are owned by 1.2% and 0.8% of FPL managers respectively could be a great differential punt.

Brentford’s Bryan Mbeumo (£5.6m) has now returned 25 points in his last two matches and has found form at the perfect time. Brentford have a tough game against Man City in Gameweek 38. However, with City focused on the Champions League and FA Cup finals Mbeumo could do well leading the Brentford line.

Europa and Champions League

Brighton have already secured European football at the Amex for next season, but depending on their result against Man City on Wednesday they could leap frog Liverpool into fifth place. Many FPL managers are heavily invested in Brighton and therefore it seems sensible to stick. However, in case De Zerbi decides to shuffle his pack, having a bench could be important.

Likewise Liverpool will want to ensure their highest possible finish. They face a Southampton side who are already relegated and have been especially vulnerable down Luis Diaz‘ (£7.8m) side of the pitch. The Liverpool midfielder is owned by just 6.4% of managers and whilst he is a rotation risk he could be a great differential.

Man United and Newcastle look set to be battling it out for third and fourth. Of the two a differential Newcastle asset could be good, especially as this is their final game of the season with no other competitions left to play in.

Early transfer thoughts

I have two free transfers for Gameweek 38. For the last few weeks I have been trying to strip money out of my team in order to have enough to bring in Salah for the final gameweek of the season. Owning Salah, Kane, Trent Alexander-Arnold (£7.8m) and Haaland could be a great opportunity to maximise returns.

This transfer would also allow me to take a punt on other assets like Tarkowski for his set piece threat. However, I also really like the idea of doubling up Cody Gakpo (£7.6m) with Luis Diaz. Owning both those two Liverpool midfielders alongside Alexander-Arnold would potentially maximise returns against relegated Southampton.

Either way my plan for Gameweek 38 is to maximise the potential for points returns. I plan to target the teams who have something left to play for. As well as trying to mitigate against the potential for rotation.