Top three picks for Gameweek 38

David Munday is back with his top three picks for the upcoming gameweek. This week he takes a look at his top three picks for Gameweek 38.

With just one last Gameweek of the 2022/23 season, it’s that time of year again where we look at our teams and realise how far off the final-day template we are.

There’s a number of big options I’m very nervous about not owning for this weekend, some of whom I’ve picked out here.

Gameweek 38 is all about goals, goals, goals and double-digit hauls, so here are a trio of likely lads for finding the back of the net on Sunday.

Harry Kane

I am terrified of what Harry Kane can do to my rank in Gameweek 38. I’ve got absolutely no route to reach him without selling Erling Haaland or taking more hits than a failing boxer and I think he’s going to light up the final day of the season.

It’s an occasion the England captain always turns up for. In his eight previous final day appearances, he has amassed 69 points, at 8.63 per match, from a total of nine goals. That’s a data set that includes only two blanks among four double-digit returns.

When you look at his recent form, it’s hard to see that not continuing. Only four players in the Premier League have managed more shots on target than him over their past six matches. Meanwhile, only Bruno Fernandes and Kevin De Bruyne have created more big chances than him over that period.

Both the history and recent statistics suggest a big haul is coming, and that’s before we even talk about Leeds. Sam Allardyce’s men have a tall order facing them on Sunday, especially when you consider that, over the past six matches, Leeds have conceded 18 big chances, the second-worst in the Premier League.

Only four players have more shots on target than him in the last six matches and, over the same period, have the division’s worst expected goals conceded (xGC) score.

Callum Wilson

Yes, I know you wanted more out of him against Leicester but the numbers and fixture still look good for Callum Wilson on the last day of the season.

Over the past six matches, he is unrivalled for expected goals (xG) with a score of 7.15. That’s nearly two goals more than the second for this statistic, Mohamed Salah. He might have been off the boil accuracy-wise on Monday night but that was seemingly a bit of a blip. That’s because only Marcus Rashford can boast a better total for shots on target over his past six.

Meanwhile, Wilson is comfortably the top in the division for shots in the box over the same period, even though he made some of those appearances from the bench.

Whether he starts or features as a substitute, I think he can get the better of the Chelsea defence on Sunday. In their last six, they’ve conceded 11 goals and kept a grand out total of zero clean sheets. Frank Lampard’s men are also in the division’s bottom six for shots in the box and big chances conceded in that time.

Cody Gakpo

Liverpool are going to tear Southampton apart on Sunday. That’s the prevailing theory, largely on account of that Saints squad giving off the “last day of school before everyone goes off to university” vibe for the past few weeks. That and the fact their defence is terrible.

Over the past six matches, the Saints are the Premier League’s worst for shots conceded in the box and xGC. And now they face a Liverpool.

Let’s be honest, we’re all going into Gameweek 38 armed with Trent Alexander-Arnold and Mohamed Salah, probably with the latter captained, thus negating any advantage we can get out of this match. The best way to turn the shield of owning those two into a nice healthy sword, scything through the ranks above you, you get yourself a third Liverpool asset.

Cody Gakpo looks the most likely to benefit from the woeful Saints outside of Trent and Mo, based on his three big chances and expected goal involvement (xGI) of 2.10 over the past six. Only Salah can beat him for either of those stats among Liverpool players across that period.